Climate Risk Assessment Tech Tools for Better Preparedness

Quality, precision and granularity of data is of utmost importance in physical climate risk assessments. Historical weather records and climate models play an integral part in these evaluations.

The Department of Defense (DoD) appreciates our allies’ cooperation on climate security matters and is proud to share its assessment tools. In this article we’ll take a closer look at some of these tools.

1. Open-source model for tropical cyclone risk

Hurricanes, typhoons and other tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a grave danger to coastal environments and populations. Their sustained high winds and storm surges cause widespread damage to infrastructure as well as fatalities; as global climate change intensifies this risk further.

One way that companies can prepare for these events is by understanding their impact and costs. A new open-source model developed by researchers at University of California at Irvine may assist, combining vulnerability data with storm risk information to estimate economic costs associated with landfalling TCs.

The Tropical Cyclone Impact Model provides a flexible framework for exploring the impacts of tropical cyclones on an area of interest using various scenarios and assumptions. It generates thousands of synthetic tropical cyclones each season to compare wind hazards and risks against historic records; enabling users to examine how different parametrisations affect storm outcomes.

Example of how the model operates: It considers idealized radial profile and boundary layer models which influence storm hazard; additionally it can simulate single tropical cyclone events with near real time impact evaluation capabilities to inform emergency management and response activities.

While originally designed for insurance and reinsurance companies, this model can also serve non-profit activities that aim to mitigate climate risks and vulnerabilities – including mangrove restoration projects, disaster preparedness initiatives in developing nations, or efforts to lessen the impact of natural catastrophes on vulnerable communities.

This tool can be customized to meet specific business requirements and provides clear and accessible outputs that are accessible to all stakeholders. This is essential given that many financial institutions lack climate risk expertise that would enable them to use or invest in tools to assess climate risks (see Verdantix Strategic Focus: Mind The Climate Skills Gap). A flexible model such as this offers financial firms new possibilities to investigate climate change impacts and resilience investments while working toward their net zero ambitions.

2. Humanitarian OpenStreetMap

Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) is a non-profit organization committed to humanitarian action through map data. Volunteers contribute their local knowledge towards building an open map of the world that is freely available online and mobile phones. Contributors use high-resolution satellite imagery for building outlining and validating with on-ground surveys or GPS mapping of buildings before uploading this information onto OpenStreetMap global database.

HOT’s data can be invaluable in many ways, filling gaps in base maps and aiding humanitarian responders during crises. Unfortunately, HOT has faced the difficulty of expanding its work to keep up with an ever-increasing number of complex emergencies worldwide.

As part of its efforts to expand anticipatory action, the Red Cross Climate Centre and HOT have collaborated in order to create a more streamlined application of OSM to disaster risk assessment and resilience planning. This partnership has involved conducting internal science deep dives and hosting OSM training at their Climate Centre; additionally it has worked towards developing new workflows and documenting potential applications of OSM prior to disaster occurrence.

Missing Maps project, an open collaboration between HOT and Medecins Sans Frontieres / Doctors Without Borders as well as other partners, seeks to identify regions most at risk from natural disasters or conflict, then map these in advance so people, communities and NGOs can use this information immediately for better preparedness.

The project is built upon the belief that it is more cost-efficient and effective to map in advance of an impending crisis rather than waiting until disaster has already struck. Doing so enables a proactive approach to risk reduction that may save lives by shortening response times to those most in need of aid, improving data accuracy and making planners’ lives simpler; such efforts are especially crucial in countries without established humanitarian response structures.

3. Open-source GIS

Many businesses rely on outside climate solution providers for the skills, data, and outputs required to complete risk analyses. The United Nations Environment Programme offers financial institutions resources on the structure, coverage and methodology of commonly used tools; additionally there are an increasing number of commercial providers offering their services on an independent basis.

GIS mapping adds an additional granular layer to risk assessments by enabling businesses to identify specific locations or assets that might be vulnerable to climate change impacts, enabling them to assess potential costs and benefits associated with mitigation measures for particular business units or assets.

There is an array of open source GIS software programs available, many with specific applications in mind. Java programming language has long been known for its portability and versatility; thus enabling these programs to run across a variety of operating systems easily for user comfort. Furthermore, many provide basic features as well as supporting additional plugins to extend functionality further.

QGIS is one of the leading open source GIS programs and was intended as a complete alternative to ArcGIS. As an open and free source program, with extensive documentation and an active user community, it can be used for mapping, analysis, reporting and visualization – in addition to supporting multiple file formats including the widely-used EDBS format.

HAUS is another GIS tool specifically tailored to humanitarian work, providing users with an online map-based platform that enables users to identify vulnerable areas and prioritize humanitarian aid accordingly. Using three dimensions – hazards/exposure/vulnerability/lack of coping capacity – it ranks risk rankings accordingly.

There are also other GIS screening tools designed for climate and disaster risk analysis that are meant for development practitioners to help screen potential risks early in their project design processes and national level planning activities.

4. Climate TARP

Building resilient communities and economies is integral to combatting climate change, but making the leap from understanding risks to adopting resilience measures can be tricky. Unfortunately, many development projects miss opportunities for climate and disaster risk management within their plans. Screening tools can assist developers in identifying risks with high severity or impact so that they can incorporate resilience measures into their project designs.

For instance, the Global Framework for Climate-Resilient Development can assist project planning and design by incorporating climate and disaster risk assessments into development processes. A key aspect of this approach is analyzing how climate impacts may alter an asset’s performance over time and factoring them into design considerations.

Assessing the climate impact of any development project is essential, yet many financial institutions struggle to find appropriate tools and skillsets to do it effectively. Some institutions have created their own in-house tools; others may seek solutions outside the market.

As the market for these solutions has expanded, numerous companies have emerged that specialize in offering financial institutions a wide array of data-, software- and consulting support products for climate risk assessment needs. Offering such products is becoming an increasing opportunity as climate risk assessment needs continue to expand in both scale and complexity.

Tools created to assist with climate risk evaluation typically focus on identifying and prioritizing risks. While this approach is helpful, it’s also crucial to think about other means by which climate change impacts can be decreased – for example by adapting to its changing conditions or taking advantage of opportunities presented by them.

USAID provides a tool that allows water resource infrastructure projects to assess their climate impact and create adaptation plans, while Energy Sector Management Assistance Program’s (ESMAP) Adaptation Guide: Energy Sector Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment Tool can also be utilized.